Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.007160 0.008063 0.009049 0.010211 0.011543 0.013027 0.014809
2024-10-27 0.005578 0.006764 0.008173 0.009981 0.012252 0.015031 0.018716
2024-11-03 0.004812 0.006125 0.007775 0.010018 0.013018 0.016936 0.022509
2024-11-10 0.004413 0.005848 0.007734 0.010427 0.014227 0.019475 0.027411
2024-11-17 0.003919 0.005364 0.007336 0.010268 0.014590 0.020849 0.030821
2024-11-24 0.003582 0.005048 0.007116 0.010303 0.015198 0.022601 0.034986
2024-12-01 0.003237 0.004676 0.006767 0.010095 0.015388 0.023711 0.038256
2024-12-08 0.003051 0.004517 0.006708 0.010305 0.016233 0.025924 0.043627
2024-12-15 0.002837 0.004293 0.006523 0.010290 0.016698 0.027548 0.048195
2024-12-22 0.002557 0.003940 0.006103 0.009844 0.016383 0.027792 0.050276
2024-12-29 0.002391 0.003753 0.005931 0.009790 0.016726 0.029218 0.054763
2025-01-05 0.002343 0.003751 0.006058 0.010257 0.018041 0.032559 0.063500
2025-01-12 0.002138 0.003479 0.005718 0.009882 0.017801 0.033003 0.066538
2025-01-19 0.001975 0.003266 0.005464 0.009644 0.017799 0.033923 0.070777
2025-01-26 0.001872 0.003149 0.005366 0.009681 0.018329 0.035969 0.077839
2025-02-02 0.001831 0.003137 0.005454 0.010075 0.019615 0.039752 0.089595
2025-02-09 0.001717 0.002984 0.005270 0.009921 0.019752 0.041082 0.095700
2025-02-16 0.001638 0.002889 0.005185 0.009956 0.020288 0.043361 0.104600
2025-02-23 0.001537 0.002744 0.004996 0.009755 0.020285 0.044397 0.110444
2025-03-02 0.001492 0.002702 0.005000 0.009957 0.021203 0.047725 0.123138
2025-03-09 0.001425 0.002614 0.004906 0.009943 0.021620 0.049896 0.133033
2025-03-16 0.001318 0.002442 0.004633 0.009514 0.021020 0.049445 0.135195
2025-03-23 0.001259 0.002359 0.004534 0.009461 0.021315 0.051328 0.144786